ProFamy Yi Zeng and Dr. Zhenglian Wang were invited by British Society for Population Studies to give a presentation at one-day meeting Monday 16 July 2012. Professor Zeng introduced the topic of household modelling, arguing that the conventional headship rate method was inadequate since it fails to model the processes underlying household change. He introduced the ProFamy model, which is a multistatemodel that projects cohorts by age, sex, partnership status, parity, and number of co-resident children and parents. The model produces household distributions in future years; ethnic, sub-national and rural/urban categories may be included.
Dr. Zhenglian Wang discussed in more detail the data requirements and methods used by the ProFamy model. The model requires as input only conventional and commonly available demographic data to compute the individual groups’ status changes by cohort and age. These data can be obtained from vital statistics, censuses, and routinely conducted surveys. The model may also be used more flexibly by, for example, including additional variables such as disability status. Results for US states were presented, indicating good forecasting performance.