ProFamy:A new software, input database and output archive for forecasts of households and consumptions
The ProFamy is a package which includes commercialized professional software, input database, and output archive for forecasts of households, elderly living arrangements and health services needs/costs, housing, and the other households-related consumptions/services at national, state and small area levels. The output archive contains the outcome of household forecasts for the nation, each of the 50 states and DC, and small areas that subscribe to the forecasts products. The ProFamy approach has substantial merits as compared to the classic headship-rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates, projects only a few household types without size information, and deals with household "heads" but not other household members. ProFamy uses demographic rates as input and forecasts much more detailed household types and sizes, and living arrangements of all members, including the elderly, adults, and children. Validation tests of household forecasts from 1990 to 2000 for the United States as a whole, and the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Orange & Chatham Counties and the Town of Chapel Hill in North Carolina, respectively, show that the ProFamy method/software for household forecasting at national, state and sub-state levels works reasonably well. The ProFamy method and its applications to U.S. and China by Prof. Zeng Yi, Dr. Zhenglian Wang, Prof. James W. Vaupel, Prof. Ken Land and Dr. Danan Gu have been published in peer-reviewed internationally outstanding journals (PDF reprints are available upon request).