cpdrc dcHealth ProFamy (A User-Friendly Software for Projections
of Households and Living Arrangements)
  China 31 Provinces Regional Projection  
Time: 2011/11/28 [1318]

In a most recent project on forecasting households, elderly living arrangements and population aging for 31 provinces (each province is also divided by rural and urban sectors) funded by China National Aging Committee, we have further extended our ProFamy model/software to project households and populations of multiple regions (e.g. 31 provinces of China and 51 states of U.S.) simultaneously in a single run (previously, 51 runs were required for the 50 U.S. states and DC), while ensuring that the weighted averages of provincial/state demographic summary measures (TFR, life expectancies, general rates of marriage/union formations and dissolutions, migration, etc.) are equal to the projected corresponding parameters of the whole country in all projection years. It makes more sense for users to project national and regional households and populations simultaneously and efficiently, because after data preparations are done, one run gets results for all regions and whole country, while keeping the consistency that the sums of the regional forecasts are equal to the national forecasts.


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